Getting Ready For Breeding in Season 21

Breeding week in PFL is currently the second week of the season, and Season 21 brings some changes to pricing, which I am going to spend zero time explaining here. Check the website out for details and discord for whether the sky is going to fall or Crown is going to pump as a consequence.

Breeding for new players can be overwhelming. Stud owners do a tremendous job advertising their horses. More elaborate financial incentives are being created every season to offset the cost of breeding. It makes sense to take advantage of anything that lowers your cost of breeding whilst also giving you access to the quality of horses that you budget can afford.

In recent seasons, changes to the calendar have provided impetus to lower grade racing given the investment into the grade restricted, mini-major series. Some people want to breed the next SS- (currently 51 in the game according to PFE) or maybe the first SS grade horse. Others just want to win one of majors. Certain stable owners are meticulous in their planning of bloodlines and the search for unique blood, and some of us just come up with a new theory five minutes before they start handing over their hard earned cash. Maybe, just maybe, a couple of people are trying to figure out how to save the LTF archetype for the good of the ecosystem!

So to avoid some of the last minute panic buying let's take a look at what the data says about breeding in PFL.

The winning gene

My job is not to convince you that there is or there isn't a winning gene in PFL. The winning gene theory is that some horses run better than their attributes and some run worse, so there must be something going on under the hood. That something is often called the winning gene, and it is surmised that it is passed on from generation to generation.

If there was a winning gene then if a stud has a winning record, then it is more likely (how much more likely?) that the foal will too. Having a horse with a winning record suddenly looks more appealing than one that doesn't. Horses that win, generally have better attributes than those that don't. You just need to look at Mr Wonderful's SS in speed and stamina to understand why he was such a good middle distance runner.

If the winning gene was passed on from parents to offspring then there should be a relationship between the win rate, or wps rate, or profitability, or ROI between them.

This table shows the correlations between the horse (or foal) on the left and the sire and the dam across the top. The values are correlation coefficients which can range from -1 to +1. A score of -1 means the numbers are perfectly negatively correlated and move in opposite directions when they do. A score of +1 means the opposite, that the two pieces of data are basically the same thing. A score of zero means there is no relationship between the two.

Our data shows a weak positive correlation, that is there seems to be a relationship, it's just not very strong. Our correlations between parents and the foal are around 0.10 to 0.15. Nothing to get too excited about. There are various reasons why this might be. Were the horses run optimally? Is racing more competitive in more recent seasons as the top end of the grades has filled out? Did the owner persevere with their horse long enough? So we should expect some signal loss because time has progressed and different racing options are open to us than when the parents ran. The fact that it is mildly positive suggests there is something going on and this simple test doesn't pick up the full story.

So on whether parents pass on a winning gene, I think this first test is a maybe...

A significant amount of the analysis I do is at a population level, which is fine, but ultimately quite dull. Let's take a look at two of the top breeding mares and see what we can see when we eyeball the data. Someone recently asked on Twitter/X which is the best mare in the game, and for many its K2. What is so special about K2?

First thing to note, K2 won one race in 29 attempts. Many players say on track record is crucially important in picking a stud. How many of those players (yes you) would have passed up on K2 (I know she's a mare) if all they could see was her record?

K2 birthed several champion horses. Seven have won more than 1MM derby on the track. That's a pretty good hit rate. What is also interesting is two of the best foals came from sires with little to no track record, Beregost and AquaEggclipse. Had they run more frequently, maybe they too would have been champions, but not being champions didn't hold them back here. A 0.56:1 ROI dam and a 0.29:1 ROI sire gave birth to a 2.93:1 ROI foal in Kan Kan Pork Chop. At an individual horse level, correlations don't mean too much.

Instead, draw your eyes to the ROI column of the horses created by K2. On the whole they have been fantastically successful. There is clearly a stronger relationship between the offsprings ROI than that of their parents. If the winning gene is to be spotted (and spoiler alert - this is probably the most interesting finding of this post but keep reading to the end) it is displayed in the performance of siblings - the brothers and sisters who have already been minted by one or more of these parents. On track performance is vitally important - just not in the parents but in the siblings. A one win mare can birth some of the best horses in the game, and you judge that mare by its track record of it's offspring not on what it says on the breeding panel (the W-P-S). You'll have to dig if you want to find truffles.

Another great mare is Marilyn Monroe, unlike K2, she was great on the track.

Marilyn Monroe gave birth to double major winner Charlie Chaplin and the double Kingmaker winner Kingslayer, both with earnings in excess of 1MM derby. Two different studs, Pluto and Space Negrutin, proved the ammo. The horse with the worse record Pluto (0.68 ROI) seems to have created, overall, better foals than Space Negrutin (1.56 ROI). So, again, the records of the parents don't seem that important. The top 5 foals all generated amazing returns. The sixth was hardly raced, and the downroll S grade struggled. But overall Marilyn Monroe generates great foals. The proof is in the foals themselves, not in the parents track record.

For the final mare example, let's take a look at a horse with less success but the same pattern.

Pinakbet is a successful mare because it bred an ultra rare SS- foal for 4MM derby, a figure considerably higher than the previous two mares could muster with a single foal, and at 100% margin, which is not achievable through racing. So before anyone gets down on this horse, just remember that successful breeding can come in many different ways, and Pinakbet is one of the most profitable mares ever because it produced and sold an SS- foal.

That said, looking at the ROI of its foals, none of them has raced well. ROI figures are close to zero, and only one foal has won more than 50k. Does that really matter with 4MM in the bank? Probably not, but the point is there is a strong relationship between the performance of the foals - none of them are racing winners. The other thing to think about is these foals cost a combined total of 436k derby in stud fees. Way out of scope for the majority of the player base. Even with premium fees, and a S+ foal with over 100k winnings, success was not forthcoming on the track at least. Chatalas, with an ROI of 0.47 provided 3 of the foals, and Little Queenie (ROI 2.62) two more. It didn't seem to make a difference to racing prowess.

Even in a completely different scenario, the relationship between foal performance was similar. If you want to know how your foal might turn out, look at the existing offspring.

Below is a table of the top mares based on the on track performance of their foals. Mares have much smaller sample sizes than sires, so take with a pinch of salt (minimum 3 foals). Note how erratic the ROI column is for the top 30 mares by profit per horse (last column).

Does the same hold true for the studs?

Studs are obviously very different to mares. You can't control who breeds with your stud, how good the mare is, and how the foal is races. With the mares, the first racer is generally the owner of the mare, with the studs its a different story, so bear that in mind when we look at stud offspring performance.

Even after 20+ seasons, two of the top thirty studs by the track performance of their offspring are the original NFTs of #9925 Jockey and #9923 Scuba, with Jockey being the second most successful stud in terms of profit per foal (minmum 10 foals).

Top spot however belongs to Benedict, a 0.63 ROI, one win stud. Despite the fairly low win rate of 17%, Benedict foals brought in 34MM derby in winnings at an ROI of 1.29:1, and an average profit per foal of almost 60k derby. There is probably some recency bias in here - older studs have had more seasons to breed, the competition was less intense in early seasons, and the potency of pure gen1 breeding - but I am not a big fan of adjusting all the numbers to account for everything - I would rather you see the raw data and make your own judgements on what should be added or taken away. There are several poor track performing horses in the top thirty - not least Benedict, AquaEcclipse, Beregost, Amun-Ra, The Fantasist and Pluto. The average profit per horse for sires is about a 10th of that of the mares - but remember you can't control who breeds with your stud. These studs also have many foals who haven't hit the track yet, and those horses aren't included in this analysis.

The list of individual foal for studs is generally too long to display here, so now you have a list of the top ones you can do the extra research yourself. What are you looking for? Progeny that perform on the track.

Raising the stakes for the majors

Fame, wealth and glory are found in the major races in PFL. All the previous analysis is good for anyone seeking to grind out a living playing the game - but what about stepping up to the big leagues, with their outsized prize pools, and enhanced profile in the breeding barn?

The following data is collected from 128 major races going as far back as possible. We obviously have 128 winners, which we are not so interested in for this article. We are interested in the sires, mares and going further back, the ancestors, of each winner. To create these (ugly, sorry) tables, I have had to map the lineage of each horse out back to the original NFTs. From this the data was broken down into direct parents - sires and dams, and previous generations (grand parents, great-grand parents...) but all these previous generations have been lumped together under the tag of ancestor. As an example from the table below, Prime Time has been an ancestor (in the bloodline) of 21 major winners, but never as a direct parent. K2 has been the mare of 3 major winners and been an older ancestor of 4 more. Obviously the frequencies are different for females and males because females can only breed once per season.

If those of you "race performance is all that matters in breeding" devotees are still with us at this point, note that the 2nd and 3rd highest producing studs, AquaEggclipse and Benedict, have no racing success to speak off, generating 11 major winners between them, and being a grand or great-grand parent to 14 more. Obviously the Stylish Studs were very prominent in early majors and are at the heart of most good bloodlines. Famous studs like Doc Holiday, The Pelennor Fields and Rose of Zion, whilst siring 2 major winners each also contribute to the bloodline of 10, 10 and 9 other winners. Lussi Juice is top overall ranked on direct siring of major winners at 7.

A good mare is worth her weight in gold, and amongst all the Fine Filly NFTs, you can see the best mares in the game here. K2 tops the chart, Lollis Legend and Olive Lussi are in 10+ major winners' bloodlines. Suffice to say if any of these horses come up for sale, it might be worth taking a look.

Abilene is another poor racing performer who has churned out two major winners, and is in the bloodline of two more.

I hope this is helpful before the beginning of season 21 breeding week, whether you are a buyer, seller, trader or all three. Remember the new pricing tariff structure, always haggle for a good deal and be creative in how you might be able to avoid paying full whack.

But if you remember nothing else, remember this. The winning gene is visible in the performance of the offspring, not in the parents. Good luck next week, and reach out only if you have a 7+ star LTF stud that you have been hiding away somewhere.

Join the fun and put these insights into practice at PhotoFinish.Live and if you are considering starting your own stable please consider using my referral code: PADDOCK or just click on this link: https://signup.photofinish.live/?referralCode=PADDOCK

Please remember this is a web3 game where you spend your own money. Nothing I write about should be considered financial or investment advice.

Other blog posts:

• Saving the LTF archetype: https://aipaddock.com/there-is-gold-in-them-thar-hills-a-campaign-to-save-ltf

• Season 19 retrospective: https://aipaddock.com/season-19-by-the-numbers

• A race selection process flow: https://aipaddock.com/selecting-the-right-races-for-your-horses

• How good is your new juvenile: https://aipaddock.com/how-good-is-my-new-juvenile-horse

• Tips for breeding strategies: https://aipaddock.com/charting-the-uncharted-in-breeding-within-pfl

• Know your odds of breeding success: https://aipaddock.com/know-your-odds-before-you-roll-the-dice

• Further down the rabbit hole of ML: https://aipaddock.com/deeper-down-the-morning-line-rabbit-hole-we-go

• What can ML prices tell us: https://aipaddock.com/skill-luck-and-morning-lines

• Finding the optimal distance: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-optimal-distances

• Understanding breeding: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-the-most-successful-breeding-horses-in-pfl

• What are subgrades: https://aipaddock.com/what-are-subgrades-and-how-do-they-work

• Fastest horses: https://aipaddock.com/who-are-the-fastest-horses-in-the-game

• Racing profitability: https://aipaddock.com/how-much-profit-do-you-make-racing-horses

• Trueskill pvp ratings: https://aipaddock.com/which-horse-is-the-goat-in-pfl

• Breeding: https://aipaddock.com/trying-to-understand-breeding-in-pfl

• Evaluating horses: https://aipaddock.com/how-good-is-my-horse

• Understanding performance: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-the-true-performance-of-your-horse

• Do stars matter: https://aipaddock.com/how-much-do-preferences-matter

• FF Rating vs Finish Time: https://aipaddock.com/the-difference-between-ff-rating-and-finishing-time

• Are horses getting faster: https://aipaddock.com/are-pfl-horses-getting-faster