How good is my new juvenile horse?

Can you smell it? At time of writing it's almost Season 21 foals day. The day when best laid plans are chucked in the ditch, and miracles, very seldom, happen. But foals day doesn't really hit until 2 months later, when we can actually race those pristine creations, unblemished by the realities of racing and probabilities of success. That's the real foals day, when the hooves hit the track for the first time.

To be a profitable stable you either need deep pockets, elite mares, luck, skill, or a method to your madness, and ideally some combination of all of these elements. Most stables, and the majority of new stables don't have the luxury of deep pockets or elite mares; we need to find an edge.

Sorting the good from the bad juveniles and exploring preferred distance is an expensive process. A sensible and rational owner will give up on horses if it is clear they are not capable of winning at least a maiden. Obviously those sensible and rational owners are in short supply, because the majority of owners love to enter their juveniles in just one more race, despite all the evidence suggesting that the horse is not cut out to win money. Very few horses make big profits. Congratulations if you own one. Some horses can grind out enough derby to fund more races. Most don't and will never make a profit. Your job, should you choose to accept it is to determine which category you horse is in and race it (or not) accordingly. If it makes a profit - race it. If its a grinder, grind away. If its not capable of winning, stop racing it. This is one very basic and simple tip to making your stable more profitable.

First races for a juvenile

Okay, so your newly 2 year old juvenile is ready for its first race, what do you do? Enter a maiden. Maidens are for horses who have never won. They are a cheap way to perform optimal distance discovery. Check the conditions - do not waste early races gambling on your horse running off conditions preference. If you are not sure of where to start looking to find the preferred distance, look at the parents and imagine your horse has the average attributes of its parents. If start and speed are likely higher start with a sprint, 5-6F. 4F tends to be a start specialist distance, speed and stamina - try 7-9F, and stamina and finish, try 10-11F. I wouldn't start with 4F or 12F unless you are fairly certain its a specialist at those distances (ie has start or finish above other attributes).

When you have finished your first race, check the horse's time against the below benchmarks. Benchmarks are more important than finishing position at this point in your horse's career. If your horse is running close to these times, its probably good enough to win a maiden on another day. We sometimes joke that 2nd place is the best place to finish in a maiden because you can continue to compete at this lower level of racing and make money. Also the first maidens of the season contain all the good horses who progressively win their way out of eligibility for these races. Maidens get easier to win as the season progresses.

Apologies for the wall of data, but trying to convey every combination of archetype, going, distance and grade is a bit of a pain. Hopefully these benchmark tables will help you determine quickly how far off the average winning time your horse is and therefore how likely you are to achieve this level. If your horse is not close to these benchmarks, then there really isn't much of a future for it. Maidens are easier to win (slower) than most other types of race. Of course with B grade horses, and some lower As you might find a career in handicaps. Handicap benchmark times are harder to compile because the weights play a big role in times, and the weights are adjusted each time based on which grade of horse is running. But the bottom line is if your horse can't win a maiden, it isn't going to have a profitable career running other types of race. So we can definitely rule it out from being an elite horse, and is now, at very best (and very unlikely) a grinder. Its most likely rubbish and the most profitable thing you can do is to stop racing it.

If you haven't satisfactorily completed your optimal race distance discovery, and something tells you it might run better at a different distance, by all means keep racing it. What does the morning line price say? If you are commonly the outsider, that is a really bad sign.

After your maiden victory

Congratulations your horse has won its maiden (finally?). Now what? Well this is where your decent options open up. In an ideal world your horse won first time out, you found a distance it is competitive at, and you want to test it at a higher level. Stake races are the obvious next step. There are two main types of stakes, open and restricted. Open means anyone can enter. The most prestigious races in the game are open stakes races, where the best horses clash hooves. Most horses will focus on restricted stakes, where only horses of equivalent grades compete against each other. This is a much tougher level of race than a maiden, which is 3/4s full of no hopers. The vast majority of restricted stakes races are full of above average to great horses. The winning times are lower, the price of entry is higher, so you really need to determine quickly whether your horse can cut it in this rarified atmosphere. Its an expensive lesson to learn. You don't really want to do your optimal distance discovery in stakes races unless you have those deep pockets because the entry fees are higher.

With the introduction of grade restricted mini-majors, and their respective series, there is a great opportunity to make profits at A or lower S grades for good horses. For restricted stakes below is the same information as before, the average winning times by all combinations possible, so you can see whether your horse is good enough to win at this level.

The average winning times for stakes tend to be significantly lower than maidens. If your horse can achieve these times, you probably have at least a grinder+ on your hands, a horse that can remain profitable through its career.

Other forms of racing

What if you win your maiden but can't perform at the next level. You have a few options open to you. Benchmarks, a race type that limits entry to horses that fall below a benchmark level (benchmark is indicated on your horse's profile). Its often disheartening to enter your A+ horse in a benchmark, only to discover some rogue S+ has the world's worst S+ benchmark but then steamrolls the competition. Benchmarks, because they don't handicap horses by grade, still favour higher grade horses, so be careful entering benchmarks with lower grade horses.

Allowances, span a few (3-4) different grades with progressive weight penalties. If your horse is an okay stakes racer, it will probably do well in allowances, particularly with the weight advantage of being in the bottom grade. You should limit allowances to only your optimal running conditions, as that's what you will be up against, horses who are known to be good at the specific race distance and weather. Some horses who can't cut it in the best restricted stakes available have profitable careers in allowances.

Handicaps are more open versions of allowances, where all grades can enter. Here you will see B grade horses, usually 9 star, with good pedigree, being competitive. Unless your horse is highly optimised for handicaps, has lots of preference stars, it might be difficult to beat other grades. The entry fees are low but the pots are very small, so your hit rate has to be high to make a profit consistently.

The lowest level of racing is claiming, where as the name suggests your horse is at risk of being claimed at the nominated rate. Most horses in claimers today are at little risk of being claimed, given the prices on the marketplace. However, you do not want to enter a horse into a claimer you wouldn't be prepared to sell it for on the market. Sometimes people see things in your horse that you don't. A shark, armed with photofinishedge and its FF2 score, probably the best single metric for understanding the skill of your horse (in one simple metric) can spot an under priced claimer a mile off, and those horses will have 8-10 claims put on them every day of the week.

These are just some high level, beginner friendly tips on how to navigate racing your newly minted juveniles in PFL. Take the advice with a pinch of salt. Everyone will find their own way and race the way they want ultimately. Some may choose to win their maiden and list the horse for profit on the marketplace (harder to do these days). Others may look for juveniles who have been put up for sale on tilt by the stable after another disappointing performance. There are deals to be had. As a new stable, finding a horse with a proven ability to win is a good first horse to learn the ropes.

Join the fun and put these insights into practice at PhotoFinish.Live and if you are considering starting your own stable please consider using my referral code: PADDOCK or just click on this link: https://signup.photofinish.live/?referralCode=PADDOCK

Please remember this is a web3 game where you spend your own money. Nothing I write about should be considered financial or investment advice.

Other blog posts:

• Tips for breeding strategies: https://aipaddock.com/charting-the-uncharted-in-breeding-within-pfl

• Know your odds of breeding success: https://aipaddock.com/know-your-odds-before-you-roll-the-dice

• Further down the rabbit hole of ML: https://aipaddock.com/deeper-down-the-morning-line-rabbit-hole-we-go

• What can ML prices tell us: https://aipaddock.com/skill-luck-and-morning-lines

• Finding the optimal distance: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-optimal-distances

• Understanding breeding: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-the-most-successful-breeding-horses-in-pfl

• What are subgrades: https://aipaddock.com/what-are-subgrades-and-how-do-they-work

• Fastest horses: https://aipaddock.com/who-are-the-fastest-horses-in-the-game

• Racing profitability: https://aipaddock.com/how-much-profit-do-you-make-racing-horses

• Trueskill pvp ratings: https://aipaddock.com/which-horse-is-the-goat-in-pfl

• Breeding: https://aipaddock.com/trying-to-understand-breeding-in-pfl

• Evaluating horses: https://aipaddock.com/how-good-is-my-horse

• Understanding performance: https://aipaddock.com/understanding-the-true-performance-of-your-horse

• Do stars matter: https://aipaddock.com/how-much-do-preferences-matter

• FF Rating vs Finish Time: https://aipaddock.com/the-difference-between-ff-rating-and-finishing-time

• Are horses getting faster: https://aipaddock.com/are-pfl-horses-getting-faster