Are horses getting any faster?

The Times they are a-Changin'

(sorry)

With a strong emphasis on breeding, and more and more horses being bred at the very top end of the grades, you may think that these new genetically superior horses are breaking records day in and day out.

However, a look at some of the data may have you scratching your head/chin. If we take a look at the shortest distance possible - the 4 furlong sprint, and a random-ish set of conditions, right turning, turf & fast - probably the fastest set of conditions possible we get the following chart.

Since the beginning of this dataset on the 2nd of May 2023 until the 21st of April 2024, almost a year, there have 8 record breakers for the fastest time, and Cossack having broken it twice.

The current record holder, at 43.92 seconds is Artemis Legend. Now, for the purposes of story telling, it would an amazing tale to hear how the breeding of Artemis Legend was based on the already amazing genetics of Well Off Artemis. Imagine my disappointment when I did some research and found out they were not related.

Artemis Legend, currently a 3 year old filly, (https://photofinish.live/horses/400f1d3e-613d-4ff5-93c7-8d61e6194b46) was bred in house by the best silks in the game, Miami Nation RT from McPherson and Hoarse Rider. She is still racing at the time of writing, so we don't know what combination of attributes created such a great 4F sprinter.

Well Off Artemis (https://photofinish.live/horses/514e9908-d036-4a95-b9ed-cc5c9e167f2b), currently owned by Wimbledon Turf, was bred from Indian Wells and Artemis, a now 9 year old stud. Looking at his attributes it may be a bit of a suprise to see a horse whose speed and stamina are higher graded than his start be a former 4F record holder. Similarly for those people who live and die by preference stars, it might be interesting to see that they only have 6.5 and 7.0 stars respectively.

Next generation stats

Will the next generation of 4F Right Turf Fast come from this line of previous record holders? With the 3 season delay between breeding and racing, it maybe some time before the progeny of Artemis Legend have their say. But let's look at another combination of distance and conditions.

At 8 furlongs right turning, turf and fast, the record has not be broken in 2024, since Bespoke (https://photofinish.live/horses/cefca202-5d42-4951-be03-ff9ebf2d3ad0), an 8 year old, prestine 9 star preference mare from GVG Genetics, significantly reduced the record in November 2023. Bespoke only ran under these conditions twice in her short racing career, so maybe there was more to come.

It's not how fast a horse runs...

The thoroughbred innovator and data scientist Jeff Seder once said (something like) "It's not how fast a horse runs, but how a horse runs fast."

Do you get paid more for breaking time records? No. Can you charge more a breeding time by advertising your horse as a record holder? Probably. Ultimately one of the great challenges of https://photofinish.live/ is to breed horses that can go faster and faster. Understanding what makes these horses so fast is more important than how fast they actually went.

Maybe adding their DNA, particularly if its available at a discount, will help you in your own breeding laboratory. There are various community websites around where you can do your own research into how your horses stack up against the very best (https://gapdata.racing/ or https://photofinishedge.com/ for example).

You don't need any data science skills to work out how your own horses stack up against these times. Whilst not perfect, the bottom vertical boxplot chart under the "charts" tab will show you where your times fall against a distribution of all horses of that grade. That's a good starting place.

Fleet Figures are something different. These ratings have been adjusted and don't correlate very strongly with finishing times, being affected by race types, finishing position and other factors. Factors I am sure we will explore in another post.

Join the fun and put these insights into practice at PhotoFinish.Live and if you are considering starting your own stable please consider using my referral code: PADDOCK or just click on this link: https://signup.photofinish.live/?referralCode=8EUMC4P2

Please remember this is a web3 game where your spend your own money. Nothing I write about should be considered financial or investment advice.