Trueskill Ratings

Trueskill Ratings for PhotoFinish.Live

Trueskill Ratings

According to https://trueskill.org/:

TrueSkill is a rating system among game players. It was developed by Microsoft Research and has been used on Xbox LIVE for ranking and matchmaking service. This system quantifies players’ TRUE skill points by the Bayesian inference algorithm. It also works well with any type of match rule including N:N team game or free-for-all.

Horse racing is a bit like PvP gaming, so the idea is we can use this system to generate ratings for horses that try to minimise the luck involved and extract the maximum signal. Trueskill, like any single metric system, isn't perfect, but can help a stable owner determine the relative strength of their horse. Sometimes you see A+ horses ranked higher than S+ horses. How can this be? Well, if the A+ has only ever raced against other A+ horses and beat them all, the algorithm rewards it. That is not to say that the A+ would be many S+ horses - so be wary of comparing across grades. If you race your horse in conditions that don't suit you will negatively impact its score. If you take a long time to find the optimal conditions, this will negatively impact the score. If you podium a lot but don't win, the algorithm still likes that. If you win and then come last, the algorithm doesn't like that. Beating higher rated rivals boosts your score more. Losing to the those same higher score rivals reduces your score less.

I will update these scores on a regular basis but be warned - these are not live, up to date scores.

Current Juveniles

Juveniles are 2 year olds in the current season. Trueskill ratings take about 8 races to settle down, but the more races the more stable the rating.

3 Year Olds

Horses that are three year olds in the current season. Includes their juvenile races to provide a complete picture.